Should University Presses Adopt An open Access [Electronic Publishing] Business Model for All of Their Scholarly Books?

This paper analyzes U.S. university press datasets (2001-2007) to determine net publishers’ revenues and net publishers’ units, the major markets and channels of distribution (libraries and institutions; college adoptions; and general retailer sales) that these presses relied on, and the intense competition these presses confronted from commercial scholarly, trade, and college textbook publishers entering these three markets. ARIMA forecasts were employed to determine projections for the years 2008-2012 to ascertain changes or declines in market shares. The paper concludes with a brief series of substantive recommendations including the idea that university presses must consider abandoning a “print only” business model and adopt an “Open Access” electronic publishing model in order to reposition the presses to regain the unique value proposition these presses held in the late 1970s.